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FINANCIAL SERVICES GUIDE ON Q SECURITIES PTY LTD

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FINANCIAL SERVICES GUIDE
ON Q SECURITIES PTY LTD

THIRD FLOOR, SUITE 4, 9 BOWMAN STREET
SOUTH PERTH WA 6151

ABN: 14 097 912 288

AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL SERVICES LICENCE NO. 226367
9TH JANUARY 2025

• Head Office Third Floor, Suite 4/ 9 Bowman Street, South Perth
• Telephone (08) 9368 6655
• Postal Address PO Box 585, South Perth, WA 6951

Lack of independence
On Q Securities is not independent, impartial, or unbiased because we:
• Receive commissions for the advice we give in relation to life insurance protection.

Before seeking our advice, you probably have several questions you would like to ask. You have the right to ask about our charges, the type of advice we will give and what you can do if you have a complaint about our services. Key information is set out in answer to the questions below. If you need more information or clarification, please ask us. This Financial Services Guide is issued by On Q Securities.

You should also be aware that you are entitled to receive a Statement of Advice (SoA) whenever we provide you with advice which considers your objectives, financial situations and or needs. The SoA will contain the advice, the basis on which it is given and information about fees, commissions and associations which may have influenced the provision of the advice.

If further advice is furnished, or when no financial product is recommended (according to current legislation), a Record of Advice (RoA) may be provided to you instead of an SoA. You have the right to request a copy of the RoA (if you have not previously received a copy) within 7 years of that further advice being given.

In the event we make a recommendation to acquire a particular financial product (other than securities) or offer to issue or arrange the issue of a financial product, we must also provide you with a Product Disclosure Statement containing information about the product which will enable you to make an informed decision in relation to the acquisition of that product.

BEFORE YOU GET OUR ADVICE

Name of Your Adviser: Steve Burge

Qualifications: Diploma of Financial Planning

Membership: Member of Financial Advice Association of Australia from 1991-onwards

Experience: Steve has worked in the financial services industry and been a financial planner since 1991.

Who does the adviser act for when providing financial services to me?
• Your Adviser will be acting for you on behalf of On Q Securities.

What advisory services are available to me?
• Retirement planning strategies
• Wealth creation
• Superannuation strategies
• Self-managed superannuation advice
• Life Insurance services
• Gearing strategies
• Social security advice
• Estate planning

In addition, your Adviser can offer you a review service for your investment portfolio or life insurance program.
We provide financial product advice for the following financial products:

• Deposit and payment products, including basic deposit products, deposit products other than basic deposit products and non-cash payment products.
• Debentures, stocks, or bonds issued or proposed to be issued by a government.
• Risk insurance products, including life, trauma, income protection and total and permanent disability insurance.
• Retirement savings accounts
• Securities
• Superannuation
• Managed investments
• Standard Margin Lending Facility
We will only recommend a financial product to you after considering its suitability for your individual needs, objectives, and financial situation. The products we recommend are selected from our approved list of products and they have been researched by external experts.

How will I pay for the service?

Fee for Service
If a fee for service is payable, rather than commission, the hourly fee rate is,
$275 – $330 per hour, Plus GST.

If you choose to pay a fee, we may rebate to you part or all the commission we would otherwise receive. You may also be charged a Statement of Advice preparation fee. This can range between $825 and $3,300 (inclusive of GST) depending on the complexity and the time spent. Any fee for service must be paid within seven (7) days of the date of the tax invoice being issued to you.

If you choose to take up our ongoing service offer, we will charge you a flat fee of between $440 and $3,300pa.

We may also charge a percentage as follows:
This fee will not apply to funds that are invested using borrowed money whether margin lending or a line of credit.

Total Funds Under Management: On the first: $1 to $1,250,000
Fee as a % of your Funds: 0.33%

The upfront commission for risk insurance financial products can range between 27.5 % and 66 % depending on the product provider, while on-going commission may range between 27.5 %pa and 30%pa. For example, on an insurance premium of $1,000 paying 66 % upfront commission and 22 % on-going commission, the upfront commission would be $660 and the on-going commission $440 per year.

Other Forms of Remuneration or Benefits
On Q Securities and/or its advisers may receive non-monetary benefits from product providers in specific circumstances such as:

• Where the amount is less than $300 and identical or
• similar benefits are not given on a frequent basis.
• The benefit has a genuine education or training purpose (including attendance to conferences) and is relevant to providing financial product advice. And/or
• The benefit consists of the provision of information technology software or support and is related to the provision of financial product advice in relation to the financial products issued or sold by the benefit provider.

Payments or benefits received must be disclosed in either a Conflicts of Interest Register or an Alternative Remuneration Register. A copy of On Q Securities’ Register, is available upon request. If you wish to inspect this Register, please ask your adviser, or contact us’.

Do Any Relationships Exist with Product Providers Which May Influence the Advice Being Given? – No

WHEN YOU GET OUR ADVICE

Do I get detailed information about actual commissions and other benefits my adviser gets from making the recommendations?
Yes. You have the right to know about details of commissions and or other benefits your Adviser receives for recommending investments. We will provide this information to you when we make specific recommendations in the Statement of Advice or Record of Advice.

Will you give me advice that is suitable to my need’s objectives and financial circumstances?
Yes, your adviser is obliged by law to act in your best interests and provide appropriate advice when providing financial advice to you. However, to do so we need to find out your individual objectives, financial situation and needs before we recommend any financial product to you. You have the right not to divulge this information to us, if you do not wish to do so. In that case, we are required to warn you about the possible consequences of us not having your full personal information. You should read the warnings carefully.

What should I know about any risks of the investments or investment strategies recommended to me?
We will explain to you any significant risks of investments and strategies that we recommend to you. If we do not do so, you should ask us for further clarification.

PRIVACY

Collecting Personal Information
We only collect personal information relevant to the functions that we perform (“information”) and the information collected is dependent on our relationship with you.
This information may include the following, although this is not an exhaustive list:
• information from you that may include your identity and contact details, financial information, and other personal information.
• information from you about others, such as services providers, agents, advisers, and employers; and
• if required, we will act as your agent to obtain your financial information from a third party on your behalf.
We will collect the information from you or from someone authorised to act on your behalf. Should you give us personal information about other individuals (such as your referees) we rely on you to obtain their prior consent.
We also collect information from you when you use our website www.onqsecurities.com.au. Your use of the facilities and services available through our website will determine the amount and type of information that we collect about you. Some of this information will not be personal because it will not reveal your identity. The only personal information which we collect about you when you use our website is that you tell us about yourself, for example, by completing an online form, where you subscribe to a newsletter, or information you provide to us when you send us an email. We will record your email address if you send us an email.
We also collect personal information in person, in writing, by telephone, and through other methods of communication. Most of the personal information that we collect is provided to us by our clients, when they initially instruct us, and during the course providing services to them.
From time to time, we may use the information to provide you with news or offers about services that may be of interest to you. If, at any time, you no longer wish to receive this material, please notify us and we will remove your details from our database of contacts. By submitting identifying data, a visitor to our website is agreeing to On Q Securities Pty Ltd use of such data in the manner described in this Privacy Policy.

We may use and disclose your personal information to:
• provide requested services.
• manage our relationship with you.
• comply with our legal obligations and assist government and law enforcement agencies or regulators; and
• identify and inform you of other products or services that we think may be of interest to you.

Who will see or have access to your personal information?

We may exchange your personal information with third parties where this is permitted by law, some of which may be located overseas. Third parties include:
• service providers, for example banks and other financial institutions.
• those to whom we outsource certain functions, for example contractors and information technology support.
• financial consultants, accountants, lawyers, and advisers acting on your behalf.
• auditors.
• your referees, such as your employer or former employers, to verify information you have provided; and
• government and law enforcement agencies or regulators.
In each case, we will treat information we collect in accordance with the principles set out above.

Security of your information
We place great importance on the security of the information we hold about you. We are committed to preventing unauthorised access to, or disclosure, misuse or loss of, that information. We will not use or disclose information about an individual other than for its primary purpose of collection, unless:
• the individual has consented to such use or disclosure; or
• we have reason to suspect that unlawful activity has been, or may be, engaged in, and use or disclose the information as a necessary part of its investigation of the matter or in reporting its concerns to relevant persons or authorities; or
• the use or disclosure is required or authorised by or under law; or
• we reasonably believe that the use or disclosure is reasonably necessary for or required by a specified purpose by or on behalf of an enforcement body.
Maintaining confidentiality and security of information is a core standard of our operations. Your information is stored in secure facilities and our information systems and files are kept secure from unauthorised access.

Access and Accuracy of your Personal Information
All information you provide will be held by On Q Securities Pty Ltd. You can ask for access to your information by contacting us. You can also contact us for more detailed information on how we collect, handle, and secure your personal information.

What to do if you believe the information, we hold about your is inaccurate
If you believe that any information that we hold about you is inaccurate or out of date, please contact us and we will review and update the relevant information.

Direct Marketing
To provide services to you we may use your information to update you as to the services being offered by On Q Securities Pty Ltd. If you do not wish to receive marketing information, you may at any time decline to receive such information by contacting us.

Privacy Complaints and Queries
If you have complaints, concerns, or queries regarding our Privacy Policy, please contact:
The Privacy Officer
On Q Securities Pty Ltd
Third Floor, Suite 4, 9 Bowman Street,
South Perth WA 6151
Telephone: (08) 9368 6655
For more information about the privacy legislation or the APPs we recommend that you visit the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner’s website at www.oaic.gov.au.

Can I tell you how I wish to instruct you to buy or sell my investment?
Yes. You may specify how you would like to give us instructions. For example, by telephone, email, fax or other means. But in all cases, we must receive a written confirmation of these instructions.

IF YOU HAVE ANY COMPLAINTS

Who can I speak to if I have a complaint about the advisory service?
We are committed to providing quality advice to our clients. This commitment extends to providing accessible complaint resolution mechanisms for our clients. If you have any complaint about the service provided to you, you should take the following steps:
The Dispute Resolution Officer
On Q Securities Pty Ltd
Third Floor, Suite 4, 9 Bowman Street,
South Perth WA 6151
Telephone: (08) 9368 6655
We will try and resolve your complaint quickly and fairly.
If we cannot reach a satisfactory resolution, you can raise your concerns with the Australian Financial Complaints Authority (AFCA) on 1800 931 678 or by post at GPO Box 3, Melbourne, Vic. 3001. We are a member of AFCAS’ complaints resolution service. The Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) also has a free call Infoline on 1300 300 630 which you may use to make a complaint or obtain information about your rights.

PROFESSIONAL INDEMNITY INSURANCE
We hold Professional Indemnity Insurance for the activities conducted under our AFS licence. The limit of the indemnity is $2,500,000 for any one claim and $2,500,000 in the aggregate. The insurance will cover claims made in relation to the conduct of authorised representatives, representatives, and employees of the Licensee. The Professional Indemnity Insurance cover satisfies the requirements of s. 912B of the Corporations Act.

2025, THE OUTLOOK FOR THE YEAR AHEAD

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2025, THE OUTLOOK FOR THE YEAR AHEAD
Markets during 2024 showed remarkable resilience giving investors good returns. Are markets over-valued? My view is that we are going to find out during 2025. The US market and other major markets were down during December. So too was our market.

Expect more volatility during 2025

Gold has been a star performer but not likely to be repeated during 2025.

There are tensions in the world, wars, China, and the Trump factor. If Trump proceeds with his election pledges, inflation will likely increase raising the risk of a recession and bond yields to increase.

On the plus side Trump is very pro-business and is looking to reduce Government red tape. This might be good for the US economy.

Interest rates will likely reduce during 2025 as inflation reduces. The chances of a mild recession in 2025 though, is very real.

China has a property valuation problem, but it also has big fiscal firepower. China has already looked to soften any negative reaction from its property crises. If Trump insists on tariffs, China can respond. This might actually be good for Australia as China looks to other markets including Australia.

Where to invest in 2025?

  • Continue to increase exposure to Fixed Interest and cash.
  • For direct shares consider Woolworths, BHP, CSL, Amcor and Ramsay health.
  • Consider a small cap fund manager early in 2025.
  • International Shares keep steady or take profits.
  • Increase exposure to property.

The Lithium price remained low during 2024. RIO Tinto has made a bid for Arcadium and other lithium projects. I feel this tells us something about the direction RIO feels the price of Lithium will go.

I look forward to our next review meeting.

Yours Faithfully,

 

Steve Burge

2024, THE OUTLOOK FOR THE YEAR AHEAD

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2024, THE OUTLOOK FOR THE YEAR AHEAD 

 

Inflation remains the main concern. Most economists are predicting no more rate rises. Even a reduction towards the end of 2024. 

The US economy has been remarkedly resilient during 2023. Will it continue? 

Recession is still the key risk in 2024. Why? Because interest may have already been increased too much. History tells us that when interest rates rise as rapidly as they have, a recession follows. As one commentator put it, “A Day of reckoning follows”. 

We now have positive interest rates. That is, interest rates are giving a positive return after an adjustment is made for inflation. This is generally good for the economy. 

Hopefully I am wrong, but it would not surprise me if interest rates rose at least one more time. If they do a “hard landing” or recession is more likely.  Not so much in Australia but in the US.  

Where to invest in 2024? 

  • Continue to increase exposure to Fixed Interest and cash. 
  • For direct shares consider Westpac, ResMed, Ramsay and A2 Milk company. Also consider a small cap fund manager. Smaller companies are likely to do well during 2024. 
  • International Shares and property keep steady with small increases. 
  • Invest in property for yield only. 

Last year I said to increase exposure to Lithium stocks. This has proved to be wrong. The price of Lithium is back to where it was in late 2021. Gold stocks though have been good for portfolios. 

I look forward to our next review meeting. 

Yours Faithfully, 

 

Steve Burge 

2023, THE OUTLOOK FOR THE YEAR AHEAD

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2023, THE OUTLOOK FOR THE YEAR AHEAD 

 

The 2022 concerns of inflation, the war, and the hangover from COVID will affect 2023. 

World banks are on a mission to control inflation. They will succeed by raising interest rates. 

Interest rates have increased rapidly; the increases are not over yet. A fear now is that interest rates will be increased by too much. The current rate in Australia is 3.1% the consensus is that the RBA will increase rates to maximum 3.85%.  

If inflation begins to ease, stock markets are likely to increase rapidly. 

Recession seems much more likely especially in the US, Europe, and parts of Asia. Here in Australia? My view is that we will again be the lucky country. We have resources that are in demand!  

Where to invest in 2023? 

  • Increase exposure to Fixed Interest. 
  • For direct shares consider Lithium stocks, Health stocks, some banks and gold stocks. 
  • International Shares and property keep steady with small increases. 
  • Dollar cost averaging is likely to be a good strategy. This is the process of regular saving as asset values decline giving you more of the assets at a cheaper price to make a profit on when prices increase.  
  • Invest in property for yield only. 

Last year fixed interest underperformed. It was the first year for many years that Australian Shares, International Shares, Property and Fixed Interest all reduced in value at the same time. 

I believe that 2023 will see a rebound of value for Fixed Interest. That said, high volatility is likely to persist. 

As always have faith in your strategy over the medium to long term (4-7years) and feel free to call me with any concerns about your wealth creation. 

I look forward to our next review meeting. 

Yours Faithfully, 

Steve Burge 

2022, THE OUTLOOK FOR THE YEAR AHEAD

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This time last year I wrote, “the word for 2020 was COVID”.  2021 has again been dominated by the pandemic and its COVID variants. 2022 may well be the year that we all accept that COVID is here to stay and learn to live with it.

Last year I wrote, “If the COVID vaccines prove to be the answer to the COVID pandemic, 2021 may well be a good year for financial markets. Cautious optimism is the outlook from most fund managers”.  2021 was a good year for well diversified portfolios.

The economic concern for 2022 is inflation caused by supply shortages and high demand caused by COVID. Initially inflation was thought to be a transitional effect of COVID. However, inflation has stayed more persistent than expected and higher than expected.

Commodity stock or stocks related to commodities tend to do best in a high inflation environment. Commodity stocks include Newcrest Mining (Gold), Rio (Iron ore), BHP (diversified mining), Woodside (Oil) and others.

Financial stimulus from Governments round the world is likely to be reduced during 2022, known as quantitative easing. This could lead to less money being lent by banks or making it harder to get a loan. Hopefully, quantitative easing will not be eased too quickly which may lead to a rapid retreat of equity prices. Not good for portfolios

Oil prices are predicted to rise during 2022 and 2023.

My theme for suggested investment during 2022 is Newcrest mining, Woodside and an increased exposure to fixed interest and Bonds.

Volatility is again likely to continue in 2022 so again remain confident in your portfolio and its long-term strategy.

My view is that 2022 will be an interesting year. A year that is even more difficult to predict. Not many voices are suggesting a recession, but it cannot be completely ruled out. Be cautious this year is my advice.

The major banks have already started to increase their fixed mortgage rates. This is a sure sign that they expect interest rates to increase.

2021, THE OUTLOOK FOR THE YEAR AHEAD

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The word for 2020 was COVID. COVID caused a steep drop in equity prices. In fact, a record drop in equity markets. The record drop in prices, was followed by another record, the best ever short term 50day rally. The COVID period gave us the worst economic crisis for 80 years.

If the COVID vaccines prove to be the answer to the COVID pandemic, 2021 may well be a good year for financial markets. Cautious optimism is the outlook from most fund managers. Much will be determined by the confidence of consumers. Will the vaccine help people to feel happy to travel again?

Governments round the world are committed to financial stimulus and have signalled that interest rates will remain low.

Low interest rates will be good for dividend paying stocks. 2020 saw dividends stocks, particularly banks, fall out of favour. Fully franked dividends tend to offer a better return than cash rates. Dividend paying stocks had a bad 2020 but are likely to come back in favour in 2021.

Iron ore prices have been very hot during 2020. However, predictions are suggesting that iron prices will moderate during 2021.

Volatility is very likely to continue in 2021 so be confident with your long-term strategy. The election of Joe Biden has reduced some of the volatility. I think the world has welcomed the prospect of some normality in US politics and its place in the world.

In general terms, I am looking forward to a good year for markets. Health care stocks should do well, so too technology and emerging markets, particularly Asia.

Australian Shares

  • RIO has had a good year, up 23% and BHP up 18%
  • Galaxy Resources up 49%
  • Virgin Money (VUK) down 49%.

International Shares

  • Hold steady but consider increasing exposure to Emerging Markets.

 

 

Property

  • Domestic real estate is looking strong with a recent recovery. I will be interested to see if the current market strength continues.
  • Commercial property should recover as the world gets back to work.

Interest Rates

  • My view is, that we should still plan for increases especially when taking on more debt.

Generally, keep investing in quality good yielding shares. Consider increasing your portfolios allocation to Emerging Markets and property.

Consider reducing exposure to mining stocks and increasing exposure to dividend yielding stocks and health care.

Consider investing in post COVID stocks like Qantas, Sydney Airports and Transurban.

I look forward to our next meeting and as always please feel free to contact me any time.

Yours Sincerely,

 

 

Steve Burge

2020, THE OUTLOOK FOR THE YEAR AHEAD

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Last year I said, “There will not be many easy gains to be had in 2019”. Well, 2019 finished with markets having reached highs. The returns gained in 2019, in a well diversified portfolio, were quite spectacular.

2020, what might we expect? World tensions due to the trade war between China and the US, more recently tensions escalating in the Middle East, will probably slow the world economy.

Watching the UK general election, as I did, was staggering. A result nobody expected. The massive majority won by Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party, has eased the threat of a “hard Brexit”. Brexit though will happen. My view is that the UK getting out of Europe will present opportunities for Australia. The UK Pound is also likely to strengthen against the Australian Dollar. Companies with UK Pound exposure are likely to benefit as a result.

In general terms, expect lower than normal growth, low inflation and more volatility.

The risk of an outright recession in the US, the UK and Australia, is low but not out of the question. Bond markets have been predicting a recession within 18 months for the last six months!

The consequence of low interest rates has been to encourage borrowing and speculation rather than savings. Savers with portfolios have been forced to chase yields. This in turn could artificially inflate assets further. Long term, very low interest rates are not good for economies. We only have to look to Japan and Europe for evidence. So called “Zombie” companies can survive by paying much less for their debt. With normal interest rates Zombie companies do not survive allowing more efficient companies to make greater profits, create more jobs and invest more.

Low interest rates have also encouraged “buy-backs” rather than expansion. There were a lot of “buy-backs” in 2019.

As a strategy, Emerging Markets might do well in 2020, so I would encourage some investment in Emerging Markets.

I still favour the strategy of reducing the risk to your portfolio in favour of the steady gains that fixed interest offer. This strategy will be obtained by buying bonds and fixed interest, as the income from the growth assets (shares and property) that you currently hold, builds up your cash account. 

Australian Shares

  • Ramsay has had a good year, up 26%.
  • CYB now Virgin Money (VUK) also had a good year, up 7%.

International Shares

  • Hold steady but consider increasing exposure to Emerging Markets.

Property

  • Domestic real estate is likely to be patchy and, in my view, generally weak.
  • Commercial property steady.

Interest Rates

  • My view is that we should plan for increases.

Generally, keep investing in quality good yielding shares. Consider increasing your portfolios allocation to Emerging Markets and Fixed Interest.

I look forward to our next meeting and as always please feel free to contact me any time.

Yours Sincerely,

Steve Burge

2019, THE OUTLOOK FOR THE YEAR AHEAD

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2018, all was going so well until October! Volatility had returned. There will not be many easy gains to be had in 2019.

2018 has seen interest rates rise globally. This in turn, has had an impact on Bond yields and the “risk free” rate to which assets are valued.

Looking to 2019, fundamentally the world looks in OK shape. However, 2019 might be a year when international fund managers look outside the US for gains. The world is not just made up of investment opportunities in the US, despite the views of Donald Trump.

The rise of populism is a concern, especially for the larger institutions that we have relied on over the years.

Last year I said that it may be time to consider buying bonds and fixed interest. I maintain this is still the correct strategy albeit with a caveat. The caveat being that the traditional diversification effects of bonds to equities may not be so successful in 2019.

As interest rates increase, the value of bonds will decrease. The cash rate, also referred to as the “risk-free rate”, is the rate to which assets are valued. When interest rates increase this may cause a rethink about the valuations of assets, in a downward direction. Investors will ask, “Am I getting adequate compensation for the risk of holding shares when I can obtain a good return from cash?”

My belief is that the strategy of reducing the risk in your portfolio in favour of the steady gains cash and fixed interest offer is the way to proceed in 2019. This strategy will be obtained buying bonds and fixed interest as the income from the growth assets (shares and property) that you currently hold builds up your cash account.

Australian Shares

  • 2018 continued to see Telstra and the banks decline
  • In 2018 resources continued to do well. Although Lithium miners declined.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to increase rates in 2019.
  • Finding value in Australian shares in 2019 is not as difficult as last year due to falls in 2018. I favour the banks, AMP, CYB and Ramsay.

 

 

International Shares

  • As mentioned above, the world is not just the US and whilst a recession is not expected a slow-down is.
  • Fund managers will be looking away from America.

Property (Commercial)

  • Still likely to offer yield only on listed Real Estate Investment Trusts.
  • Possible exception to this is well targeted direct property trusts with reputable managers. Beware the liquidity trap with direct property trusts.
  • My thoughts on domestic real estate is that it is difficult to see what will spark a price increase. Interest rates are likely to increase and the community has high debt levels. Not generally conditions under which real estate prices increase.

Interest Rates

  • Expect increases globally.

Last year I said I liked Amcor, AGL, Stockland, Retail Food Group (RFG), Brambles, Ramsay Health and for those not averse to some “spice” in their portfolio, Evolution Mining.

All the above picks, apart from Evolution mining, were down. RFG was a disaster and Brambles was flat.

The fact that a gold miner like Evolution mining increased in value, reflects the worlds assessment of risk. Gold tends to do well in a volatile risky world.

This year I recommend that you build up bonds and fixed interest, although where appropriate the banks are looking like good value. The Royal commission into the banks, due early this year, if favourable, will likely see the banks increase in value.

I continue to like Ramsay health and also CYB as a hedge against the UK pound Oz dollar exchange.

I look forward to our next meeting and as always please feel free to contact me any time.

Yours Sincerely,

 

Steve Burge

On Q Training Policy

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On Q Securities Pty Ltd (“On Q”) is committed to conducting its business in accordance with all
applicable laws and regulations, and in a way, that enhances its reputation in the market.

Managing the ongoing CPD requirements in accordance with FASEA guidelines is a key component to On
Q’s risk management framework.

To view the On Q Training Policy, please click on the link below.

On Q Training Policy_v1.0

2018, THE OUTLOOK FOR THE YEAR AHEAD

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Following on from an eventful but rewarding 2017, what could possibly go wrong in 2018?!

In 2017 there was concern about Brexit and President Trump. This year my concern is interest rates. Not that I expect them to go shooting up, just that the powers that be might hike them a little too quickly thereby killing the good economic conditions.

Perhaps we should be worried about Kim Jong Un and Amazon? Possibly, although surely the world will learn how to contain North Korea and surely he does not have a death wish?

Amazon is here and so far so good.

Looking to 2018, the world looks in very good shape. My view is that 2018 will be a year for sticking to your investment strategy. And, that it may be time to consider buying bonds and fixed interest, as the cash in your portfolio increases.

In other words, reduce the risk in your portfolio in favour of steady gains, not by selling the growth assets of shares and property but by buying bonds and fixed interest, as the income from the growth assets builds up your cash account.

Australian Shares

  • Last year some of the big detractors within your portfolio were in the industrial sector; Telstra down heavily, retail down heavily (more about confidence than Amazon), Media down heavily and banks pretty much a flat line.
  • Resources did well; BHP, Galaxy, RIO up.
  • Wage growth is still subdued, a puzzle as we have low unemployment.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to increase rates.
  • Finding value in Australian shares is difficult. Possibly consider Retail Food Group, Amcor, AGL and Stockland. For those who like gold mining with risk, Evolution Mining. As you know I do not generally favour gold stocks other than Newcrest.
  • Also worth looking at Ramsay for health care exposure and Brambles as I expect the US dollar to strengthen against the Aussie dollar.

International Shares

  • The world is looking good especially emerging markets which had a good 2017.
  • America up, Europe up, Japan up, the UK up during 2017 and likely to continue.
  • Do we have a goldilocks, (not too hot and not too cold) global economy for 2018?
  • I remain optimistic for 2018. Companies that can benefit from higher interest rates will be the winners.

Property (Commercial)

  • Still likely to offer yield only on listed Real Estate Investment Trusts.
  • Possible exception to this is well targeted direct property trusts with reputable managers. Beware the liquidity trap with direct property trusts.

Interest Rates

  • Expect increases generally globally.

Last year I said that the UK Pound will likely improve in value, as the terms of Brexit become clearer. Stocks like CYBG PLC, (the Clydesdale and the Yorkshire Bank), Wesfarmers and Henderson, should all benefit from this.

During 2017 CYB was up approximately 19%, Henderson approximately 25% and Wesfarmers approximately 6.5%. Nice to get a prediction right but it was a good year!

I also said stocks with US dollar exposure, Macquarie Group, Amcor, Brambles and CSL should benefit from the Trump effect.

During 2017 Macquarie up approximately 13%, Amcor basically flat, Brambles down approximately -20% and CSL up approximately 39%.

I continue to recommend, as I did last year, to hold banks for yield and buy health care. This year I also recommend that you build up bonds and fixed interest.

Ramsay health has had a small loss during 2017, basically flat. As mentioned earlier, worth considering as the world ages. Ramsay has exposure in the UK and Europe as well as Australia.

I look forward to our next meeting and as always please feel free to contact me any time.

Yours Sincerely,

Steve Burge